Will Electric Cars Ever Be Cheaper to Own Than Gas Cars? The Full-Cost Reality Check Most People Avoid

Most arguments about whether electric cars will ever be cheaper to own than gasoline cars start with the wrong comparison and end with the wrong conclusion. The wrong comparison is when someone pits a base-trim gasoline sedan against a tech-loaded EV crossover and calls the result “proof,” as if trim levels, performance, and equipment don’t matter. The wrong conclusion is when someone discovers their electricity cost per mile is lower than gasoline and declares EVs “obviously cheaper,” ignoring that depreciation can erase years of energy savings in a single resale moment. If you want the truth instead of a comforting slogan, you have to treat this question like finance, not fandom, and run it as a total cost of ownership problem. That’s exactly why frameworks like AAA’s “Your Driving Costs” put depreciation at the center of ownership economics rather than treating it like an afterthought *1.

“Cheaper to own” is not one number. It is a stack of costs that behave differently depending on your time horizon, your miles driven, your local electricity and fuel prices, your access to home charging, your insurance market, and the specific model you buy. If you keep cars for a short period, you’re mostly playing a depreciation and insurance game. If you keep cars for a long period, you start letting operating costs—energy, maintenance, routine wear—compound into something that can outweigh the early losses. AAA’s methodology (five years and 75,000 miles in their standard framing) is a useful mental anchor because it forces you to count the costs people love to ignore: depreciation, financing, insurance, fees, fuel, and maintenance/repairs *1. If you don’t count those categories, you’re not answering the question—you’re cherry-picking.

The uncomfortable fact is that EVs already can be cheaper to own for many buyers today, but they are not reliably cheaper for most buyers in every situation. That “sometimes yes, sometimes no” outcome is not confusion; it’s a sign the market is mid-transition. Third-party ownership-cost studies that break down costs category-by-category repeatedly show that EVs tend to crush gasoline vehicles on fuel/energy cost and often win on maintenance, while frequently losing on depreciation and sometimes insurance. Vincentric’s EV ownership-cost work is blunt about where EVs win and where they don’t, and it’s one of the cleaner examples of why the answer depends on the vehicle pair and cost assumptions rather than ideology *4.

If you’re serious, the first discipline is to stop saying “EVs vs gas” and start saying “this EV vs this alternative under this usage pattern.” The second discipline is to stop assuming the alternative is a pure gasoline car. In the real world, the strongest economic competitor to an EV is often a hybrid. Hybrids steal most of the fuel savings narrative while keeping refueling convenience and often delivering strong reliability. Consumer Reports’ annual reliability survey reporting has repeatedly emphasized how hybrids tend to have fewer problems than gas-only cars, while EVs and plug-in hybrids can show more issues depending on model and year, even if the reliability gap has been improving over time *9. If your argument ignores hybrids, it’s probably fighting yesterday’s battle.

Start with the cost category that decides most ownership contests: depreciation. Depreciation isn’t a bill you pay monthly, which is why people pretend it’s not real, but financially it’s often the biggest cost of owning a new vehicle. AAA’s ownership-cost framing explicitly defines depreciation as the difference between purchase price and the estimated trade-in value after five years and 75,000 miles, and it routinely ends up the largest single cost bucket *1. That means EVs don’t need to lose on many categories to lose overall—if they get hit harder on depreciation, they can lose the entire total-cost game even while being dramatically cheaper to “fuel.”

EV depreciation has been unusually volatile because EV markets have experienced technology leaps, price wars, incentive changes, and consumer uncertainty all at once. If new models keep arriving with materially better range, faster charging, and better efficiency, older models can look obsolete faster. If manufacturers cut new-car prices, used-car values adjust quickly, punishing earlier buyers. If incentives expand or shrink, the effective “new price” moves, and used values follow. Reporting has highlighted dramatic one-year depreciation in certain EV models during periods of price cuts and shifting demand, showing how resale value can become the hidden trapdoor in “EVs are cheaper” claims *11. This is the part EV advocates tend to minimize and EV skeptics tend to exaggerate; the truth is that depreciation varies wildly by model, market phase, and timing.

That volatility is not permanent, but it is the current reality you should plan around. Depreciation stabilizes when technology improvement becomes less shocking year-to-year, when pricing becomes steadier, when the used market has more data on battery longevity, and when buyers trust charging compatibility and long-term service support. The moment depreciation becomes boring, EVs’ operating advantages show up much more reliably in total cost of ownership. Until then, the rational consumer response isn’t “EVs are bad,” it’s “I’m not paying the early-adopter tax unless the operating savings or incentives overcompensate.”

Now move to the cost category everyone talks about because it feels intuitive: energy. EVs have a structural efficiency advantage because electric drivetrains convert stored energy into motion far more efficiently than internal combustion engines. That advantage is real, but the real-world cost per mile depends on where you charge and what you pay per kilowatt-hour. If you charge at home on a reasonable tariff, EVs can be dramatically cheaper per mile than gasoline. If you rely heavily on public fast charging priced at convenience premiums, the energy advantage shrinks and can even approach the per-mile cost of a very efficient hybrid, especially in regions with high electricity prices or expensive DC fast charging. The EV ownership-cost debate becomes dishonest when people talk as if “electricity” is one uniform price. It isn’t, and your charging pattern is destiny in the operating-cost category.

That is why you should treat “home charging access” not as a lifestyle preference but as a financial variable. If you can’t charge at home, you’re buying into a different ownership reality: more time spent charging, more price variability, more planning overhead, and more exposure to the retail pricing strategies of charging networks. Those time and friction costs rarely appear in consumer spreadsheets, but they are real costs. NREL’s total cost of ownership work in the commercial context explicitly quantifies “opportunity costs” like dwell time during charging, showing that time losses can be meaningful enough to model as economic cost rather than annoyance *12. The same logic applies to personal ownership even if the math is messier.

Maintenance is the category where EVs tend to win cleanly—at least on routine service. No oil changes. Fewer fluids. No exhaust system. Less brake wear thanks to regenerative braking. Consumer Reports has described how EVs can cut repair and maintenance costs substantially compared with similar gasoline cars, citing its earlier study work and explaining that reduced routine maintenance is one of the primary economic advantages of EV ownership *7. That said, maintenance is not the same thing as repairs, and it’s not the same thing as reliability. A vehicle can have low routine maintenance and still have a high rate of issues in software, electronics, sensors, or manufacturing quality. The mature way to read the data is: EVs generally reduce predictable routine service costs, but model-specific reliability and repair costs still matter and can swing outcomes.

Insurance is another category that frequently spoils the simple “EVs are cheaper” story. EVs can be more expensive to insure for reasons that have nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with claim severity: higher vehicle values, expensive battery-adjacent repairs, specialized procedures, sensor-heavy designs, and sometimes limited repair networks that increase labor and downtime. Consumer Reports has warned that EVs can cost more to insure than gasoline cars and notes the hope that prices fall as insurers collect more data and repair ecosystems mature *8. If you want EVs to become reliably cheaper to own for the mass market, insurance normalization is not optional—it’s one of the levers that must improve.

Fees, taxes, and incentives are the most politically unstable part of the equation, and they’re often where people accidentally reveal what they really mean. If someone says “EVs are cheaper,” then you remove the incentive and suddenly they’re not, that person wasn’t making a technology argument. They were making a policy argument. Policy can absolutely change ownership economics—sometimes dramatically—but it’s not a stable foundation for predicting long-run market outcomes unless you treat it as uncertain. Research organizations like the ICCT have argued that EV costs are projected to keep dropping even as incentives evolve, and they cite cost and market dynamics that extend beyond subsidies *13. The grown-up position is not “incentives don’t matter,” it’s “don’t confuse an incentive-driven bargain with structural cost superiority.”

Battery costs are the deep engine room of EV affordability because the battery pack remains one of the most expensive components of the vehicle. The U.S. Department of Energy has documented a roughly 90% decline in estimated EV battery pack costs from 2008 to 2023 in constant dollars, with a 2023 estimate of $139/kWh (usable-energy basis) at scale production *2. This is not a trivial trend; it is the reason EVs moved from exotic to mainstream at all. But it’s also not a magic wand. Battery costs influence sticker price potential, but sticker price is also shaped by automaker positioning, competition, and consumer willingness to pay.

The next stage of battery economics is not just “cheaper,” it’s “cheaper in the specific places and segments that dominate global sales.” The IEA has reported that China produces over three-quarters of the batteries sold globally and that battery prices in China dropped by nearly 30% in 2024—faster than anywhere else—making many EVs in China cheaper than conventional counterparts, while also noting that batteries in China were reported cheaper than Europe and North America by large margins *3. That matters because it reframes the affordability question as a competitive and industrial ecosystem question. If one region can reliably produce batteries and EVs cheaper, it exerts downward pressure on global prices through competition, supply chains, and consumer expectations.

Commodity volatility is where the “EVs will just keep getting cheaper every year” narrative gets punched in the face. Battery metals, particularly lithium, can swing hard. When lithium prices fall, battery costs tend to ease; when they spike, costs rise or progress stalls. Recent reporting has described how oversupply gave way to signs of recovery and tighter balances in lithium markets, showing that battery input costs can move in cycles rather than straight lines *14. If you’re forecasting EV ownership economics, you should assume a messy path: long-run decline, short-run spikes, and occasional plateaus, with affordability improvements arriving unevenly.

Now we can finally answer the question in a way that won’t collapse under scrutiny. Will EVs ever be cheaper to own than gas cars? In many cases, they already are. Vincentric’s analysis and the surrounding reporting have found that around half of analyzed EV models in certain years can have lower five-year ownership costs than comparable gasoline counterparts, while also showing that the result fluctuates year to year and depends on model pairings *4. That is exactly what a market in transition looks like: not universal victory, not universal defeat, but a growing share of wins as cost structures improve.

But the next question is the one that actually matters: will EVs be cheaper to own for the majority of mainstream buyers without special conditions? That requires several things to become true at the same time. EV purchase prices need to compress toward gasoline and hybrid alternatives in the segments people actually buy. Depreciation needs to stabilize, which requires less pricing whiplash and more used-market confidence. Insurance needs to normalize as repair ecosystems mature. Charging access needs to become affordable and convenient beyond homeowners, or else EVs remain financially optimized for a privileged charging situation rather than a universal consumer reality.

This is where your thinking should sharpen, because there’s a trap: people assume the future is a straight line from today’s trends. It won’t be. Competition can create price wars that help new buyers but punish owners through depreciation. Policy can accelerate adoption one year and slow it the next. Charging networks can expand but still price at convenience premiums. Manufacturers can choose margin over volume. If your forecast assumes every stakeholder behaves in the consumer’s interest, you’re not forecasting—you’re daydreaming.

A more defensible forecast is conditional: EVs become reliably cheaper to own when the total ownership-cost penalties stop overpowering the operating-cost advantages. Operating costs are already a structural EV strength—Vincentric explicitly highlights that all EVs in their analysis had lower fuel costs than gasoline alternatives, and most had lower maintenance costs as well *5. Ownership-cost penalties—especially depreciation and insurance—are where the battle is fought. The moment those penalties shrink or stabilize, EVs don’t need to be perfect to win; they just need to be normal.

The strongest counterpunch against EV dominance on ownership cost is the hybrid. Hybrids reduce fuel cost substantially while preserving quick refueling and often strong reliability. Consumer Reports’ reliability survey reporting has reinforced the idea that hybrids tend to have fewer problems than gas-only cars, and that EVs and plug-in hybrids can have more issues depending on model, even as the gap improves *9. If EV advocates want to convince mainstream buyers, they have to do more than beat gasoline; they have to beat the “boring correct answer” of a reliable hybrid for a large share of buyers.

This is also why the “EVs are cheaper because electricity is cheaper” argument is fragile. Efficient hybrids shrink the operating-cost gap without demanding charging behavior change. If your EV advantage depends on very cheap home electricity and low insurance and stable resale value, then you don’t have a universal advantage—you have a specific-situation advantage. That’s still valuable, but it’s not the same as “EVs will definitely be cheaper for everyone.”

To keep your reader’s attention without lying to them, you should also confront the emotional reality: people don’t just buy cars, they buy risk profiles. Many buyers are willing to pay more for predictability. Depreciation volatility feels like betrayal because it turns ownership into a guessing game. Charging friction feels like stress because it adds planning to what used to be automatic. Repair-network gaps feel like helplessness because you can’t solve them with willpower. Those feelings matter because they shape consumer behavior and therefore market pricing.

That’s why the “used EV market” may be one of the most important bridges to broad affordability. If EV depreciation is currently heavy for certain models, then used EVs can become extraordinary value propositions for buyers who can tolerate some uncertainty and who can charge cheaply. The same depreciation that punishes the first owner can subsidize the second owner’s total cost. This dynamic can accelerate adoption among value-driven consumers and eventually stabilize resale values as the used market deepens and battery durability confidence grows.

Battery durability confidence is not a marketing claim; it’s a trust infrastructure. The more consumers see high-mileage EVs with acceptable degradation and manageable repair costs, the less they demand a “fear discount” in the used market. That reduces depreciation losses for new buyers and makes EVs financially more attractive. This is a slow cultural shift, but it’s measurable in resale-value stabilization over time, and it’s essential for EVs to become reliably cheaper to own.

Charging infrastructure is the other half of that trust infrastructure. The less reliable and more expensive public charging feels, the more EV ownership depends on home charging. That creates a split market where EVs are financially excellent for some households and mediocre for others. If EVs are going to be cheaper to own for the majority, charging must feel like a utility, not an adventure. And the pricing must be rational enough that public charging doesn’t erase the operating-cost advantage.

You might be tempted to end the article with a simplistic “yes,” but that would be intellectually lazy. The honest ending is this: EVs will be cheaper to own than gasoline cars for a growing share of buyers, and in some segments they already are, but the timeline for “most buyers, most of the time” depends on whether depreciation and insurance normalize and whether charging access becomes broadly affordable. The best evidence points toward continued battery cost improvements and competitive pressure that makes EVs cheaper in more markets, but the transition will be uneven, and hybrids will remain a serious economic rival rather than a speed bump *2 *3 *5 *9.

If you want a final practical takeaway that actually helps readers instead of feeding them ideology, it’s this. If you have cheap home charging, drive enough miles to let operating savings accumulate, and plan to keep the car long enough to dilute depreciation shocks, an EV has a strong chance of being cheaper to own than a comparable gasoline vehicle—and sometimes even cheaper than a hybrid. If you cannot charge cheaply at home, swap cars frequently, and are sensitive to resale value and insurance, a hybrid often becomes the most rational “cost certainty” choice today. That conclusion doesn’t flatter any tribe, which is why it’s probably closer to the truth.

What will decide the future is not whether EVs “can” be cheaper—they already can. The deciding factor is whether EV ownership becomes boringly predictable, because boring is what makes markets efficient, resale values stable, insurance cheaper, and consumers confident enough to buy without demanding a risk discount. When EVs become boring in that way, they won’t just be cheaper to own than gas cars. They’ll be the default financial decision for most mainstream buyers.




References

American Automobile Association. (2024, September). Your Driving Costs 2024: Fact Sheet. AAA Newsroom. https://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/YDC_Fact-Sheet-FINAL-9.2024.pdf

Consumer Reports. (2023, February 16). Will an Electric Car Save You Money? https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/hybrids-evs/will-an-electric-car-save-you-money-a9436870083/

Consumer Reports. (2023, April 27). Electric Vehicles May Cost More to Insure Than Gasoline-Powered Cars. https://www.consumerreports.org/money/car-insurance/electric-vehicles-cost-more-to-insure-than-gasoline-powered-a6372607024/

Consumer Reports. (2025, December 4). Hybrids Are Still the Most Reliable Cars, CR Survey Shows. https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/electric-vehicles-are-less-reliable-than-conventional-cars-a1047214174/

International Energy Agency. (2025, March 5). The battery industry has entered a new phase – Analysis. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-battery-industry-has-entered-a-new-phase

National Renewable Energy Laboratory. (n.d.). T3CO: Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership. https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/t3co

U.S. Department of Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office. (2024, August 5). FOTW #1354: Electric Vehicle Battery Pack Costs for Light-Duty Vehicles. https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1354-august-5-2024-electric-vehicle-battery-pack-costs-light-duty

Vincentric. (2024). 2024 Vincentric U.S. EV Cost of Ownership Analysis (PDF). https://vincentric.com/Portals/0/Market%20Analyses/2024%20US%20EV%20Analysis/2024%20Vincentric%20US%20EV%20Cost%20of%20Ownership%20Analysis.pdf?ver=2024-04-08-192812-343

Vincentric. (2024). Electric Vehicle Analysis Press Release. https://vincentric.com/Home/Industry-Reports/US-Industry-Reports/2024-EV-Analysis-Press-Release

Wired. (2024). EVs Are Losing Up to 50 Percent of Their Value in One Year. https://www.wired.com/story/evs-are-losing-up-to-50-percent-of-their-value-in-one-year

Reuters. (2026, January 4). Energy storage boom strengthens demand outlook for beaten-down lithium. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/energy-storage-boom-strengthens-demand-outlook-beaten-down-lithium-2026-01-04/

International Council on Clean Transportation. (2025, July 30). Tax credits or no tax credits, EV costs are projected to keep dropping. https://theicct.org/tax-credits-or-no-tax-credits-ev-costs-are-projected-to-keep-dropping-jul25/